Fin 445 economics project- a thorough investment analysis begins with


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A thorough investment analysis begins with a top-down approach.  A good understanding of the economy – where we’ve been, where we are, and where we may be going – is critical to successful long-term investing.


In this project, you will analyze what you believe to be the five (5) most important economic variables based upon what we studied in class.  You are not limited to those discussed in class, but if you choose any other variables you’ll need to explain thoroughly why they are (more) important.




Use ARIAL type font, 12 point, double-spaced.


First, select the five economic variables you will use and list them in the order in which you will discuss them.  Put them in the order of what you believe to be their importance for your outlook. (5 points)


Second, discuss the meaning of each variable.  Chart and interpret its history, provide a rationale for its importance, and rationalize your ranking order. (35 points)


Third, using all of the variables you have chosen, put together an analysis of where in the cycle you think the economy is today.  Be sure to discuss the history of the variables and how that affected your analysis. (45 points)


Fourth, based on your analysis of where we’ve been and where we are, and using the same variables, discuss what you think will happen in the economy over the next 12 to 24 months. (15 points)


General Instructions:


Be sure to use graphs and data to support your arguments.  You can find the data and charts you need using, FRED and other sources.  Use the most recent data points possible.  Use as much history as you believe necessary to make your points.  Be sure to endnote from where you obtained your information.


This assignment should not exceed 8 pages excluding graphs and data.  If you want, you can put the charts and data in an appendix in the back.  So to clarify, you may have up to 8 pages of prose, plus additional pages for charts and data.



Additional Instructions:


Answer each of the four sections thoroughly.  Use complete sentences and paragraphs.  Please endnote any source you use to justify your answers (including class notes and the textbook).  Feel free to bring in other sources to support your answers (just be sure to endnote those sources).







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